"By the time your olive trees bear fruit, you are definitely going to be out of office."
So what? Your vice president or chosen successor could be president. If anything, this is an argument against presidential term limits. Which leads into my next comment...
"If the chance is high that you will be in power when the olive trees are mature, it does pay to plant them. If you circle back to the Swiss Federal Council, those politicians can rely on at least their parties still being in power ten years from now."
...The same logic holds for the US. The major political parties have been the same for over a century.
"The median voter has a coherent worldview, and knows which party aligns with it. "
I don't think that's accurate. Almost by definition, the median voters are the ones who are up for grabs by both candidates because they *don't* have an overarching worldview which dictates how they vote.
====
As a general matter, I think the Israeli political crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis cuts against your argument. The blocs in Israel are pretty well defined, and the current prime minister originally took office while John Major (!) was prime minister of England. The country went through multiple elections in rapid succession. Those elections were about as meaningless as meaningless can get- the outcome was simply another round of the same election all over again. I don't think too many Israelis on any side thought that that experience was something to cheer.
In America, the chance that your party is in power at any moment outside your current term is ~50%. Which means that there is an equal chance that you or your political opponents get rewarded. Since in a two party system a reward for your opponent is equivalent to a punishment for you, the net expected value of future olives is 0. I agree that this is can be an argument against term limits. But the arguments for presidential term limits are greater (if a single person is in power too long they can become so influential that coups become easy). I do oppose congressional term limits though for exactly this reason.
_________________
I agree that Isreali politics is a mess. The "Rak Bibi" v "Rak lo Bibi" strife is reminiscent of the American Trump v Never Trump strife, so a more American type of government would hardy help. Maybe the the critique is that Israel's form of government failed to prevent the current situation. But elections do matter somewhat though. The 2021 election kicked Bibi out of power for 1.5 years. I also think the fact that Israel is such a mess has a lot to do with the situation that it is in too. Swiss politics might have been a lot messier if it existed in the geopolitical context as Israel.
"Since in a two party system a reward for your opponent is equivalent to a punishment for you, the net expected value of future olives is 0."
That's true of anything other than a one party state, no?
Honestly, I don't know all that much about Swiss Politics, but based on this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Council_(Switzerland) it sounds like they have some sort of permanent unity government in place. I guess that works.....when you're Switzerland.
As a casual follower of global events, the only times I ever hear about Swiss politics is when they have referenda. That strikes as something which probably lowers the stakes of the elections, since the voters can just vote their policies directly anyhow.
"I also think the fact that Israel is such a mess has a lot to do with the situation that it is in too. Swiss politics might have been a lot messier if it existed in the geopolitical context as Israel."
FTPT is slightly worse than PR when there is interparty permeability: now, with disciplined parties and absolute dominance of national politics, it is an existential catrastophe.
It helps having 4 official languagges. Coincidentally the EU has the same kind of universal coalition government and it is also a multi lingual (supra)state.
"By the time your olive trees bear fruit, you are definitely going to be out of office."
So what? Your vice president or chosen successor could be president. If anything, this is an argument against presidential term limits. Which leads into my next comment...
"If the chance is high that you will be in power when the olive trees are mature, it does pay to plant them. If you circle back to the Swiss Federal Council, those politicians can rely on at least their parties still being in power ten years from now."
...The same logic holds for the US. The major political parties have been the same for over a century.
"The median voter has a coherent worldview, and knows which party aligns with it. "
I don't think that's accurate. Almost by definition, the median voters are the ones who are up for grabs by both candidates because they *don't* have an overarching worldview which dictates how they vote.
====
As a general matter, I think the Israeli political crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis cuts against your argument. The blocs in Israel are pretty well defined, and the current prime minister originally took office while John Major (!) was prime minister of England. The country went through multiple elections in rapid succession. Those elections were about as meaningless as meaningless can get- the outcome was simply another round of the same election all over again. I don't think too many Israelis on any side thought that that experience was something to cheer.
In America, the chance that your party is in power at any moment outside your current term is ~50%. Which means that there is an equal chance that you or your political opponents get rewarded. Since in a two party system a reward for your opponent is equivalent to a punishment for you, the net expected value of future olives is 0. I agree that this is can be an argument against term limits. But the arguments for presidential term limits are greater (if a single person is in power too long they can become so influential that coups become easy). I do oppose congressional term limits though for exactly this reason.
_________________
I agree that Isreali politics is a mess. The "Rak Bibi" v "Rak lo Bibi" strife is reminiscent of the American Trump v Never Trump strife, so a more American type of government would hardy help. Maybe the the critique is that Israel's form of government failed to prevent the current situation. But elections do matter somewhat though. The 2021 election kicked Bibi out of power for 1.5 years. I also think the fact that Israel is such a mess has a lot to do with the situation that it is in too. Swiss politics might have been a lot messier if it existed in the geopolitical context as Israel.
"Since in a two party system a reward for your opponent is equivalent to a punishment for you, the net expected value of future olives is 0."
That's true of anything other than a one party state, no?
Honestly, I don't know all that much about Swiss Politics, but based on this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Council_(Switzerland) it sounds like they have some sort of permanent unity government in place. I guess that works.....when you're Switzerland.
As a casual follower of global events, the only times I ever hear about Swiss politics is when they have referenda. That strikes as something which probably lowers the stakes of the elections, since the voters can just vote their policies directly anyhow.
"I also think the fact that Israel is such a mess has a lot to do with the situation that it is in too. Swiss politics might have been a lot messier if it existed in the geopolitical context as Israel."
LOL. Ya think?
?
FTPT is slightly worse than PR when there is interparty permeability: now, with disciplined parties and absolute dominance of national politics, it is an existential catrastophe.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uW77FSphM6yiMZTGg/why-not-parliamentarianism-book-by-tiago-ribeiro-dos-santos
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zzr8Pgf7pMf6tTpbM/democracy-beyond-majoritarianism
Elaborate on what makes the Swiss so different from the Germans, French or Italians.
Interesting take!
It helps having 4 official languagges. Coincidentally the EU has the same kind of universal coalition government and it is also a multi lingual (supra)state.